Battle of Balikapapan with Cruisers

[Fatboy Coxy]

Hi all, can we revisit the Battle of Balikpapan, 24 January 1942. Historically Rear Admiral Glassford sailed from Kupang, Timor, with the light cruisers Boise and Marblehead, and six Clemson class destroyers, after Dutch aerial reconnaissance spotted a Japanese invasion convoy of 15 transports heading for Balikpapan. Now I'd like to appraise three versions of an alternative naval action, all starting with the US force achieving tactical surprise. To help set this up, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwY2uATMDe4, which gives a good historical account of the battle.

OK for the first version, lets suppose Marblehead hasn't had a turbine breakdown, and her, along with her historically escorting destroyer Bulmer are also present. For Marblehead's armament at this time see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Marblehead_(CL-12). First question is can the Japanese still make the mistake of ignoring this force like they did at 2.30am, spotting some of the US ships, flashing a identify yourself signal, but then moving south without raising concerns. At 550 ft long, and nearly 10,000 tons, surely they can't, so how do they react. For the US, the goal is still attack the transports, but the silent approach is now abandoned, with gunfire being exchanged with Japanese destroyers to their west. Can they successfully reach the transports. Marblehead still has 2 triple mounting 21-inch torpedo tubes, one firing each side, and I'd expect the US force to be using a lot of torpedoes, although if expended against Japanese destroyers, I wouldn't expect many hits, accepting the now known torpedo issues. And at what stage do the Americans make a withdrawal.

For the second version, we substitute Boise for Marblehead, and her escorting destroyer, Barker for Bulmer. Same quiet approach, although Boise doesn't have any torpedoes. But radar can potentially make a significant difference here. Firstly, she should spot the Japanese naval forces heading west, and have time to adjust course and avoid a visual contact. Now they have complete surprise, and should have time to plan how they attack the anchored transports. Does the land behind the transports provide clutter, I have read of problems over this around Guadalcanal. Surely they start with torpedoes only, but at what stage does Boise open up with her guns, and how close dare she get to the transports. Providing they have a decent amount of success, I can see them wanting to avoid a battle with the Japanese naval forces that are returning fro the south. At the sound of Boise's gun, those Japanese forces are surely going to come running.

And for the third version, we completely indulge, with both Boise and Marblehead present as well as their destroyers, now totalling six. Again, Boise's radar will allow them complete surprise, but does the plan to attack the transports change, dividing the US force into two, and if so, in what way. And do they wait to engage the returning Japanese Naval force, or with all torpedoes expended, call it a day. In this scenario, just how much damage can be done, the torpedo's are still going to be a let down, but the guns of Marblehead and Boise should be devastating on the transports.