Prince of Wales in front

[hans zurbriggen]

Hello Mr. lwd,
you may be right from an average probabilities viewpoint in battle development. However, at 5th salvo Bismarck could have "luckily" hit Hood's magazines even with Hood astern of PoW. Position of BC1 ships doesn't change the odds.

hans

[lwd]

Hello Mr. lwd,
you may be right from an average probabilities viewpoint in battle development. However, at 5th salvo Bismarck could have "luckily" hit Hood's magazines even with Hood astern of PoW. Position of BC1 ships doesn't change the odds.

hans

Ah but it does. Not sure if it makes it more or less likely though. Consider based on the initial miss identification Bismarck is likely to have opened fire on PoW. Does she shift fire and if so when? Also Hood had just or was in the process of completing her turn. If she's following PoW she wouldn't have completed the turn yet (indeed the turn may have been delayed a bit as the orders were passed) so much different profile.

[hans zurbriggen]

Hello Mr. lwd,
Lütjens re-assigned target for Prinz Eugen at 05:55, having already correctly identified Hood. Bismarck would have fired 5 salvoes against Hood by the same time of Hood explosion even with Hood behind PoW: no statistical change.
But you are right, the turn might have affected Hood vulnerability: however, Hood start of turn is just one of possible scenarios for Hood explosion (penetration of main belt): others are independent from Hood inclination (underwater hit under main belt and hit of middle belt over machines, deflagrating 4" magazines and then 15" ones).

hans