Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

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Bgile
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by Bgile »

My understanding is we were never able to read all IJN messages; only a subset. I don't think there was ever any indication from decoded messages that there was going to be an attack at PH or at the Philippines. If you have information to the contrary, by all means let us know, but as far as I know there wasn't any and when we did break the code it was a big deal and material has been written about it. Remember, at least one message was sent from DC that was supposed to increase the alert status of the PH forces. IIRC it was to the effect that war with Japan might be in the near future. Isn't that when the local commander decided he should move the aircraft into a position where it was harder to sabotage them, his reasoning being that an attack on PH was impossible but Japanese sympathizers might sabotage things? This was discussed in hearings and has been common knowledge and the guy came under a lot of criticism.
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by tommy303 »

If I recall, the US code experts had broken the Purple Code used by the Japanese foreign office, and this success allowed the decoding and translation of the long document (14 parts) which in effect was to sever diplomatic relations between Japan and the USA--essentially a preliminary move to a formal declaration of war. The target for the initial moves was not stated in the document nor was it specifically mentioned in any military messages which may have been partially or completely decoded, at least in part because orders had been issued in Japan directly to the responsible task force commanders whose units sailed thereafter under radio silence. The various messages received intercepted in November, together with other intel from sightings were enough to show something was up and the trend was towards military action in the western Pacific. Possible targets could only be guessed at, and a number of alerts were enacted in November, but there had been a slight relaxation by the start of December when nothing out of the ordinary happened until December 6 when the 14 part message began to come in.

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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by Bgile »

In late November a message was sent to the Army and Navy commanders throughout the Pacific and the beginning of this message contained the words "Consider this a war warning". The guys in Hawaii just didn't do enough to prepare for an IJN attack there because they thought the chances of it happening were vanishingly small.
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dfrighini
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by dfrighini »

tommy303 wrote:If I recall, the US code experts had broken the Purple Code used by the Japanese foreign office, and this success allowed the decoding and translation of the long document (14 parts) which in effect was to sever diplomatic relations between Japan and the USA--essentially a preliminary move to a formal declaration of war. The target for the initial moves was not stated in the document nor was it specifically mentioned in any military messages which may have been partially or completely decoded, at least in part because orders had been issued in Japan directly to the responsible task force commanders whose units sailed thereafter under radio silence. The various messages received intercepted in November, together with other intel from sightings were enough to show something was up and the trend was towards military action in the western Pacific. Possible targets could only be guessed at, and a number of alerts were enacted in November, but there had been a slight relaxation by the start of December when nothing out of the ordinary happened until December 6 when the 14 part message began to come in.
With this level of intelligence I'm surprised no one worked it out, not even an intelligent maverick so it seems (please correct if wrong). Rommel correctly guess the Allied would launch their landings (D-Day) in Normandy not Calais, yet he was unable to convince the rest of the German high command. But then this is often the case, intelligent people not being listened to, did anybody work out what the Japanese were up to before their attack on Pearl Harbor? Even with limited intelligence, someone very clever, with an dynamic, acute and flexible mind, namely the ability to think existentially, could have work out what was going on.
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dfrighini
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by dfrighini »

Bgile wrote:In late November a message was sent to the Army and Navy commanders throughout the Pacific and the beginning of this message contained the words "Consider this a war warning". The guys in Hawaii just didn't do enough to prepare for an IJN attack there because they thought the chances of it happening were vanishingly small.
There is a nice phrase 'the rote starts at the top', therefore if the top (i.e. commander) is rotten, so will the structure be. My point is this, either the US commander at Pearl was incredibly inefficient, or the was something up.

I want to know what you think about the 'McCollum memo' is this pure conjecture or is there some substance? Furthermore with documents like this running around the place I find it differcult to understand how you consider a conspiracy impossible while on the other hand you are debating in this forum? Kind regards )))
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tommy303
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by tommy303 »

Off hand, the November war warning, which was early in the month, was based on some sound intel from various sources including partial decoding of intercepts; the conclusions drawn were fairly accurate, i.e., that the Japanese were up to something hostile, but the time table was wrong by a month. When an expected outbreak of hostilities did not occur, and when negotiations seemed to be continuing in Washington between the State Department and the Japanese ambassadors, the alert status was downgraded in most areas of the Pacific where US forces were deployed. One cannot simply keep personnel on a constant state of alert to apparent no purpose without suffering a breakdown in morale.

This is not to be taken as a cancellation of alert status, simply it was downgraded somewhat. In Hawaii, Short and Kimmel did not seriously consider an attack on the naval and army forces there , as they doubted a major fleet could get close enough to Hawaii without being detected and they did not feel the fleet could be successfully attacked by torpedo aircraft because of the shallowness of the harbour. It was considered much more likely that the attack would come elsewhere and that the Japanese would concentrate their forces against their major objectives-- the East Indies oil fields and US airpower and naval forces in the Philippines. This was not an unreasonable assumption, as conventional wisdom recommended the Japanese concentrate their forces thus and not spread them around too much, thus keeping a reserve of naval power to block a move by the Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. What is actually more difficult to comprehend is the lack of preparedness in the Philippines where US Army Air Corps and Philippine forces were caught flat footed by Japanese air attacks hours after Pearl Harbour.

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They stood and Earth's foundations stay;
What God abandoned these defended;
And saved the sum of things for pay.
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by RF »

Oberwarrior wrote:
I think you might have missed the point, the name of this post is 'Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?' the important word here being 'theory', i.e. a supposition or system of ideas indented to explain something unexplained or something which has not been sufficiently explained, depending on your interpretation of the evidence, or lack of evidence as the case maybe. The whole point in it being a theory is that it is an area open to discussion and or debate, had it been proven beyond reasonable doubt it would no longer occupy the halls of theory and would become fact.

Kind regards )))
I don't have a problem with the discussion of this subject at all. You will notice that I said: '' I think that the actual run of events is proof enough of no conspiracy.'' This sentence was stated as an opinion, not as a definate fact.

The thing about conspiracy theories are that they are, as you say, a theory. They can be discussed forever, without arriving at a final conclusion. However most people will come down to believing there either is or there isn't. My conclusion is that the facts of the events that happened don't lend support to a conspiracy, and that is stated as opinion.

Of course the US had a lot to gain by winning WW2. But there are two points coming up here. In 1942 it was by no means certain the US would win. And when it was won why didn't the US immediately follow up by anihilating the USSR with nuclear weapons when it had the chance? Why didn't it turn Japan into a US colony and avoid the economic competition from Japan that it endured from the 1960's onwards? If there was a conspiracy - it didn't work out very well.....
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RF
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Re: Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory?

Post by RF »

Bgile wrote:
No, because to me the logic is the same. So totally improbable as not to be worth considering, just like some huge conspiracy to kill a large number of US sailors so we could get into a war and fight Japan. Their simultaneous attack on the Philippines would have started a war with the US as well, but you are zeroing in on PH for some reason.
This is my view too. Add to this the likliehood of that conspracy, if it had happened, of being exposed - with the political consequences. Roosevelt was a fairly canny politician, he would have had the sense not to pull that sort of stunt. If the President had been, say Nixon, well it might have been a different matter....
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.
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