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Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:27 pm
A very up to date topic for you, although it is not (thankfully) yet a conflict, what should the world do about Kim Jon Un and his determination to keep firing his missiles, bearing in mind it might take only one to go astray and hit South Korea, Japan or Guam to start WW3 - and if it did would China and/or Russia become involved and on whose side?
Re: North Korea
Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:11 am
I doubt it will start WW3, rather Russia, China and the US will step hard on Kim's infrastructure to prevent future "accidents".
Operation "Shock and Awe and Kim-chi."
Re: North Korea
Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:06 pm
The danger of this is brinkmanship. As in 1914 any accident could trigger a war involving North Korea.
What we don't know is what is being said via the diplomatic channels between the USA and China. I would expect the Chinese to be told bluntly by the Trump administration exactly in what circumstances the US could strike directly at North Korea and with what weaponry, specifically to get the Chinese to force North Korea to back down.
The Chinese do not want South Korean or US forces moving into North Korea. The problem for China, more than the US, is the nature of the North Korean regime. It is a military dictatorship dressed up as socialism; if the army leadership is broken the regime falls - but what fills the vacuam?
If there is a war the North Korean regime will fall, probably quite quickly. Back in 1950 China had nothing to lose in backing North Korea militarily. Today China is a major trading nation with a far more open economy, it has a lot to lose if a war starts now on its doorstep, particulary in its relationship with the US.
So I don't think there will be a war as such. Yes there will be plenty of bluster and rhetoric but the key will be what is going on behind the scenes.