Reasons why Germany didn't win the war

[RF]

This is why I think that the war in the Pacific wasn't started by the militaristic side, but instead by the "commercial side", eager to get rid of the military elite, and to re-tie the commercial links with the USA.

This doesn't make sense - start a war and see your country defeated to promote commercial interests? Yes, it would get rid of the military - but how would they know that the commercial interests would survive?

[alecsandros]

This doesn't make sense - start a war and see your country defeated to promote commercial interests? Yes, it would get rid of the military - but how would they know that the commercial interests would survive?

You shouldn't treat the problem from this perspective. I doubt the business leaders had such a "broad vision", and I doubt even more that they considered "Japan's interests". It is quite the other way around, in fact... their actions brought Japan to her knees, costing the lives of millions of compatriots.

I think their group interests prevailed, and that they couldn't care less about "Japan's interests"...

We have so many examples of big businesses acting against the welfare of the society they existed in... Look at Enron...

[RF]

I think their group interests prevailed, and that they couldn't care less about "Japan's interests"...

This sounds almost like a marxist conspiracy theory.

''Their group interests'' are tied up with Japan's interests. Destroy Japan and in the scenario of the 1930's then they too are destroyed. The fact that they did survive both defeat and US occupation was largely down to an amazing act of forbearance by the Americans, who needed them, which could not have been seen beforehand.

[lwd]

While such may have impacted the road to war I don't see it being a primary cause. Remember it was lower ranking IJA officers who were responsible for renewing the war with China. The political leaders and senior officers then didn't want to risk the loss of face by reigning them in. This put Japan on the road to war. Throw in the rivalry between the IJN and IJA and the various factions within and the tendency of junior officers to assassinate senior officers and politicians who didn't follow their preferred path and you have a system that is not really in anyones control

[RF]

We have so many examples of big businesses acting against the welfare of the society they existed in... Look at Enron...

Enron and the zaibatsu is not really a like on like comparison, as much as ''the welfare of society'' is an elastic and vacuous phrase.

Imperial Japan in the 1930'S up to 1945 was an empire based on a supra-nationalist ideology of a nation state. The values glorified the idea of a superior nationhood, to which any concept of Japanese society was subordinate. The zaibatsu were subsumed within that ideology, to the extent of considerable military control and profiteering from that control.

Enron existed within a capitalist ideology of a globalised world economy, where big business is supposed to provide for the economic needs of society, without the need to glorify the military or the nation for its own sake.

The only thing they did have in common was they were all corrupt.

[RF]

Remember it was lower ranking IJA officers who were responsible for renewing the war with China. The political leaders and senior officers then didn't want to risk the loss of face by reigning them in.

They couldn't reign them in even if they wanted to. These IJA junior generals already had their own empire, called Manchukuo, supposedly a separate country from Japan, which in reality they ruled as their own private estate. It was that estate which fostered the greed for more, by seizing the more economically productive parts of China, and then the ''Southern Resources Area''.

[alecsandros]

''Their group interests'' are tied up with Japan's interests. Destroy Japan and in the scenario of the 1930's then they too are destroyed.

Not if they orchestrate the colapse and are there to greet the victors.

The fact that they did survive both defeat and US occupation was largely down to an amazing act of forbearance by the Americans, who needed them, which could not have been seen beforehand.

I would call it to much of a conincidence that all of the pre-war zaibatsu's made it to the XXIst century.

I know it sound like a very, very bad cliche. But, with the infos I got so far, it seems the only way to explain Japan's quirky decisions before and through the war, and also the development of Kawasaki, Mastushita, Nakajima and Mitsubishi after the war...

I am opened to new theories about this, especialy because I have a certain respect for Japanese tradition which is slowly dimming away, because of the apparent lack of morality in Japanese elite financial circles XXth-XXIst century.

Regards,
Alex

[lwd]

From what I've read such a plan isn't required and thus Occam's Razor would argue against it. The inherent politics and idealogy in Japan at the time seem to me to be enough to explain it. Furthermore why would the zaibatsu's be able to operate in such a coordinated manor over a significant period of time when one or more could gain significant advantage over the others by opposing and revealing their plans. To me it just appears that militarism and idealogy created a system that spun out of control. I will state however that this is another area where I"m far from an expert.

[RF]

Not if they orchestrate the colapse and are there to greet the victors.

That requires incredible foresight, which simply wasn't there.

Having studied Japan's economy during this period, including seeing the reports of American engineers and military specialists produced during the occupation, the Japanese industrialists were of low calibre as business managers and leaders, they had some good engineers, but the main criticism were the outdated and (by US standards) inefficient production methods used in Japanese industry - labour intensive and a low productivity rate! The Americans concluded that the Japanese industrial managers and owners had little idea of American productive power and of the capitalist ethic, which was linked to the low social status accorded to them by the military.

lwd - I think the quirky decisions you refer to are (in my opinion) down to the fact that the militarists were living in a fantasy world, and had no idea what they were taking on. This is indeed hinted at in the movie Tora! Tora! Tora! with the criticisms of ''Army hotheads'' by the IJN leaders and the diplomats at the Japanese embassy in the US.

[lwd]

... - I think the quirky decisions you refer to are (in my opinion) down to the fact that the militarists were living in a fantasy world, and had no idea what they were taking on. This is indeed hinted at in the movie Tora! Tora! Tora! with the criticisms of ''Army hotheads'' by the IJN leaders and the diplomats at the Japanese embassy in the US.

There was a very good chapter or three in Shattered Sword about the lead up to Midway that helped me understand (I think) a bit more about the decision processes in the Japanese high command. The problem as I see it wasn't so much that they were living in a fantasy world, although there was an aspect of that as well, but they had developed a set of views/goals/concepts that channeled them into what was ultimately a destructive path. The combination of beliefs of racial superiority, their equivalant of "manifest destiny", the importance of face, and the low value of human life. Some of the assassinations and attempts at the same that plagued Japan were undertaken because the assassin believed the target was taking Japan in the wrong direction. So far nothing unusual about this but in Japan killing such a person and dying in the attempt was considered praise worthy. Even if the beliefs on the path were not shared the willingness to self sacrifice was. Given the world view the decision were not all that illogical and certainly some of it was due to missunderstanding or not understanding the real world but much of it was real or at least spiritual. If it had been completely or even mostly fantasy enough might have come to their senses in time to stop the death spiral that was Japanese politics of that time.

[RF]

Yes, the cultural aspect and the ''bushido'' mentality are highly significant, and overall it did lead them to think within the vacuam of a pre-conceived fantasy world. This is in turn the result of poor education and a lack of contact with the real world, compare for example the wordly experiences of Yammamoto compared with Tojo.

Much the same sort of fantasy world vision can be seen in modern day Iran, as seen by the Islamic fundamentalists, as in for example their denial of the nazi extermination of the jews.