Interesting what if: No Stalingrad

[Karl Heidenreich]

I´m currently trying to read Anthony Beevor´s Stalingrad (a lot of work far from home ) As far as Operation Blue is regarded the original plan from the German Army was to reach the Volga to cut the damm ruskies from their oil fields (sounds good) and turn the vital Ural zones from the flank and behind. In this sense Stalingrad was (in genius Douglass McArthur´s strategic thinking) a candidate to be by passed. What would have happenned if Hitler didn´t order von Paulus ´6th Army to enter Stalingrad but to surround it and make for bridgehead north and south the city, cut the railways that run behind?

Best regards...

[RF]

Look at the geography Karl, look at the salient, and remember the advice that Zeitzler tried to give to Hitler. And don't forget Uranus (and I am not talking planets).

And don't forget the Volga - over a mile wide, you can't go round it or move it!!!!!

[Karl Heidenreich]

RF:

And don't forget Uranus (and I am not talking planets).

Of course my friend!

Your are talking about the tendency of the commie rats to name their offensives after planets: Uranus, Saturn, etc. I believe they lost lives at them for each mile that separate those planets from Earth...

[Karl Heidenreich]

lwd:

Hi! You´re right but... do you know that the original operational orders for 6th Army at Blue were to approach Stalingrad and destroy the factories there, then to proceed eastward and cross the Volga? "Destroy the factories"... not "seize the city"... They are quite different orders. The original planners were aware that a German field army could very well get into harms way if tangled in street fights. It was, as always, Adolf the one that began to gave the city an importance bigger than the real one. And Joe Stalin was willing to accept the chalenge.

RF:

And don't forget the Volga - over a mile wide, you can't go round it or move it!!!!!

It wasn´t the first time the Germans had to cross a very wide river. But the idea was to cross it up and down river of the city, weeks before the soviets were able to organize their counteroffensives, which, by the way, could have never taken place if 6th Army and Hoth´s Panzers would be manouvering in september and october on the eastern flatlands of the Caucasus...

[RF]

Karl,

The sheer logistics of crossing the Volga would be horrendous. The German flanks already covered completely by other Axis armies (Roumanians, Croatians, Italians and Hungarians) the Germans just didn't have enough men for such a colossal operation. And how would the Luftwaffe keep them supplied? And how would the Kriegsmarine be able to protect the ferries crossing the river (ship the Tirpitz overland and launch her into the Volga?).....

[jazsa80]

I think the only way Germany could have reduced the USSR to its knees was to go over to the offensive once the Volga had been reached. Not entering Stalingrad would be a good start.

Politically impossible to do, and the Loss of vast amount of hard won territory would be required (Hitler just would not allow it). A simple fight-withdraw-fight-withdraw doctrine or (elastic defence). A good line in the sand would be the Don river (the one that runs through the ukraine). Germany would just have to set up meat grinder after meat grinder and the Soviets would keep feeding them until exhausted.

You look at the losses that Russia was taking up until Berlin, then add in the 6th Army and the losses (Germany's) taken at Kursk and I'm pretty sure the Soviets would be spent having to fight their way through these extra defences. Then with new equipment, consolidated supply lines etc Germany could resume a summer offensive in 44 and dictate terms.

This Fanciful theory that the Soviets had inexhaustable manpower reserves is false. At the end of the war Russia was in the same position as Germany- recruiting young and old men into the ranks.

[RF]

I think the only way Germany could have reduced the USSR to its knees was to go over to the offensive once the Volga had been reached. Not entering Stalingrad would be a good start.

Germany did not have the resources or manpower to do this. The original plan was on reaching the Volga to strike north and capture Moscow - but it was a logistical impossibility.

[jazsa80]

How do you figure? If the Volga had of been reached and the entire German Army turned over to the defensive USSR would run out of men before getting anywhere near Berlin.

I'm talking about an elastic defense doctrine. Allowing the German Generals a free hand to withdraw and attack when and where they saw fit. The USSR was nearly exhausted upon reaching Berlin in 45 historically. Add a free hand to the Generals with the above doctrine plus not losing 6th Army or waisting troops and material on the Kursk pocket and I see no reason The Soviets coould not be worn down.

The Germans may not be able to aquire victory but they could prevent defeat quite easily. If the 6th amry could be transferred to the western front then there would be no way D-day would succeed.

[RF]

What you are arguing makes sense, BUT for it to work the elastic defence and decisive battles would have to be further west than Stalingrad, in other words closer to Germany, shortening the German supply lines and lengthening the Soviet supply lines.

The problem with the Volga was that it mean't the Germans and their Axis allies were fighting further to the east than ever before or afterwards, the Germans didn't have enough men, tanks, guns and aircraft for this.

[Karl Heidenreich]

The problem with the Volga was that it mean't the Germans and their Axis allies were fighting further to the east than ever before or afterwards,

Of course, that´s why it´s called an invasion: the invader have to go outside their country and invade the enemy´s one.

[lwd]

But going that far strains their logistics and also demands tremendous numbers of troops just to hold the line. The Germans would have been better off with a shorter front line and closer to their log base.

[jazsa80]

Absolutely. In the Last half of 42 Germany would have to let go alot of ground. Not simply abondon it, but a fighting withdrawal. I think in late 42 Rostov had become well organised into a logistics hub.

With effective limited counter attacks, coupled with a fighting withdrawals to pre-prepared defensive postions the Germans would probably only fall back to pre-war Polish eastern borders. Basically keeping intact the Germans key fighting requirement- maneuver.

My plan would see the continued build up of ground forces as seen after Stalingrad historically. These forces would be kept in occuppied Poland and only be launched when a trigger point was reached (most likely pre-war Polish eastern border). Then they would launch encirlcing operations to destroy what was left of the Soviet army. Around summer 45. Bare in mind with this plan, D-day would have faced an increase in German defences of Army group size. I doubt it would have been launched. If it was launched it would be defeated.

The Soviets would not have let up. They would continue to throw men and material into battle to gain ground. Pre-Prepared defences and elimination of the Stand-fight-and-die policy would prevent huge German losses.

This would have seen the Defeat or nullifying of the Soviets due to mammoth manpower shortages. The Soviets would not be able to field a quality force. After 45.

[RF]

My plan would see the continued build up of ground forces as seen after Stalingrad historically. These forces would be kept in occuppied Poland and only be launched when a trigger point was reached (most likely pre-war Polish eastern border). Then they would launch encirlcing operations to destroy what was left of the Soviet army.

This was the sort of strategy advocated by Manstein in the fall of 1942 and spring 1943. But Hitler would have none of it and the opinion of the General Staff was that it would result in stalemate, because the Wehrmacht could not physically occupy the whole of the USSR.

If Germany was facing only the USSR the situation would be somewhat different as more resources would be available. But the Germans didn't have that luxury.

[jazsa80]

Maybe a stalemate. But given time, I believe the Germans could have properly developed their 'FireBrigades'' and eliminated the requiremnt for a traditional occupation. I would some sought of armistice or something, maybe the over throw of Stalin. If the timeline is extented into late 45 early 46 and no atom bombs a dropped in Europe then V weapons and the like will start falling in the Urals (maybe). But at any rate the supply problems would be well on their way to being solved with the rail guage conversions etc plus alot of the industry moved east would be online and out of range of allied attacks. Maybe.

[lwd]

... If the timeline is extented into late 45 early 46 and no atom bombs a dropped in Europe ... But at any rate the supply problems would be well on their way to being solved with the rail guage conversions etc plus alot of the industry moved east would be online and out of range of allied attacks. Maybe.

Nope. They'll have a better log system as far as distribution goes but now they'll be running short of raw materials.