Possibilities of a Kido Butai air raid on Singapore Naval Base

[Fatboy Coxy]

Hi all, humour me if you will for a moment, and assume that the Japanese invasion of Malaya has stalled, and one or two of HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse are based there. The British have a fully operational radar network covering southern Malaya, and have 50+ fighter aircraft, Buffalos in December, Hurricanes in January or Tomahawks in February.

Whats the practical earliest the Kido Butai could launch an attack, and how likely are they, given the risk of torpedo bomber attack, Vildebeest, and possibly Swordfish, the fact they would have to operate in confined seas, and being located by Hudson recon aircraft.

Because the ships are anchored in the straits of Johore, there is little opportunity for torpedo attack, suggesting the exclusive use of dive bombers, furthermore, Singapore would have about 100 heavy AA guns, admittedly spread across a number of locations on the island, as well as the guns of the fleet. The fleet would be a few WW1 light cruisers, and half a dozen destroyers, mostly WW1 vintage.

[Mostlyharmless]

If the Japanese hold airfields in Northern Malay, the 11th Air Fleet would redeploy to Malaya from Indochina and attack Singapore. Less danger and larger bomb loads. The attached Zeros would be a fairly effective escort. There might even be an Army versus Navy competition to sink the British ships with Ki-21s escorted by Ki-43s as the Army entry.

Neither would win. The Prince of Wales would eventually make something equivalent to the Channel Dash to avoid endless repairs.

[Fatboy Coxy]

If the Japanese hold airfields in Northern Malay, the 11th Air Fleet would redeploy to Malaya from Indochina and attack Singapore. Less danger and larger bomb loads. The attached Zeros would be a fairly effective escort. There might even be an Army versus Navy competition to sink the British ships with Ki-21s escorted by Ki-43s as the Army entry.

Neither would win. The Prince of Wales would eventually make something equivalent to the Channel Dash to avoid endless repairs.

I totally agree, but I was interested in just how bad would things have to be for the Japanese to risk the Kido Butai in attacking Singapore, and what might be a reasonable date that they could undertake such an operation.