3 German battleships in May 1941.

Historical what if discussions, hypothetical operations, battleship vs. battleship engagements, design your own warship, etc.
lwd
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by lwd »

RF wrote:Britain in mid June 1940 was in a far weaker position than you presume.
I don't think so. The problem is you aren't looking at the corresponding weaknesses of the Germans.
At that time, particulary after the fall of France most people in France and the US assumed Britain would go under.
Really? Lets see looking at:
http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201940.htm
For 5 May we have:
Which side do you think will win the war?
Allies.............................. 55%
Germany........................... 17
No opinion......................... 28
by June there's a bit more pesimism:
Interviewing Date 6/27-7/2/40 Survey #199-K Question #12
Which side do you think will win the war?
Allies.............................. 32%
Axis............................... 35
No opinion.........................33
Even then a long way from most in the US expecting Britain to go under indeed only ~1/3 do so.
The RAF at the start of summer 1940 was far shorter of trained pilots and aircraft than it was by early September.
Indeed but what about the LW? They had yet to move most of their support facilities forward and many of their planes were in need of significant maintnenance.
The British Army was desparately short of weapons and ammunition, particulary of tanks and artillery. By September 1940 there were sixteen re-equipped and re-armed divisions available in Kent/Sussex to contest an invasion.
But much of the artillery deficit was made good by the end of JUne and something like 500,000 rifles delivered more than amking up for what was lost in France. In addition significant quantities of ammo were also delivered during this peirod.
But in late June only the RN could act as a substantial barrier - at a time just when the war was extended to the Med and Indian Ocean.
And what did the Germans have to contest it? Furhtermore what did they have to move troops across the channel?
The destruction of the RAF should have been straight forward because the Germans should have concentrated on the Fighter Command airfields and radar stations.
In the period where they did this historically they lost ground against the RAF.
... As fortheinvasion itself - the required shipping was there if it had been properly prepared and organised.
It was? Where? It took them what 2 months to gather enough barges and I'm not sure I'd consdier that adequate shipping.
Not that too much shipping would have been needed, the invasion forces required to land in a semi-armed England would not be large, especially with total air superiority.
Which they simply couldn't obtain. The RAF was going to pull back so they could contest the invasion if it looked like the Germans would gain Air supremacy and you can't hold air superioirty without having a fighter ration on the order of 3:1.
As for the Scheer - that ship would be of far greater use in attacking a North Atlantic convoy than it would be in the North Sea or the Channel. A German heavy ship in the Atlantic would stop the convoys for lack of escorts, causing far greater strategic damage to Britain and impacting on neutrals. If forces had to be sent against the Scheer then they wouldn't be able to operate in the Channel.
That was the German plan for Sea Lion I believe. The questions is how much of the RN it would have drawn off.
Francis Marliere
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by Francis Marliere »

Dave,

thank you for the precisions.

Anyway, whatever the qualities of German radar network, I am still a bit sceptical about a German landing in England. The network is surely fine for ambushing allied ship but offers little protection for the convoy. I am inclined to think that if German had tried to invade England, awfully lots of barges would have been sunk by weather, mines, air attacks and British warships.

Best regards,

Francis
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by alecsandros »

Francis Marliere wrote:Dave,

thank you for the precisions.

Anyway, whatever the qualities of German radar network, I am still a bit sceptical about a German landing in England. The network is surely fine for ambushing allied ship but offers little protection for the convoy. I am inclined to think that if German had tried to invade England, awfully lots of barges would have been sunk by weather, mines, air attacks and British warships.

Best regards,

Francis
The LW had considerable strength compared to the RAF, and adding the possible support of REgia Aeronautica the situation would be quite hot for the BRitish.
Naval operations by the RN would be stopped in the Channel, as large waves of bomber attacks would quickly cripple pretty much any squadron.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by Francis Marliere »

Alecsandros,

I don't believe that, as you says, the LW could stop the RN.
First, I doubt that the LW would be as efficient as you say. Most of German bombers (I don't even speak of Italian ones) were He 111 and Do 17, which were ineffective against naval targets (poor accuracy, small bombs), and only the Ju 87 and 88 were a danger for the Royal Navy. Most of DB pilotes were not trained to attack warships and their hit rate against small and fast warships such as DD and CL would be very low (SBD pilots in the Solomon in 42 didn't hit often Japanese DD). I am not sure neither that DB could attack at will. As far as I know, dive bombing requires that cloud cover is not too low. I live 70 km away from the Channel and know that weather isn't always fine in northern France. Sky is often gray with low cloud cover, even sometimes in summer. I fear that your country enjoys better weather that mine for dive-bombing ...

I also consider that whatever the odds the RN will attack. The Mediterranean Fleet evacuated the troops in crete despite heavy looses and I can't imagine that the Home Fleet does not make the same sacrifice for the home land. The Royal Navy has the determination to accept looses and enough ships to spare : the British have many old ships (such as V/W classes DDs and C/D class cruisers) which were both expendables and powerfull enough to engage barges and their escort. These ships are fast enough to stay outside Ju 87 range during daylight then steam at high speed a few hours and engage the German convoy by night. They may or may not be sunk by the LW later, but after many barges have been sunk.

Best regards,

Francis
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by alecsandros »

Hi Francis,
I read once about the composition of operational LW forces in France summer 1940. They had a very good number of dive bombers (~ 1000 IIRC), which proved quite effective at Dunkirk (allthough not deployed in large numbers) and then harrassing traffic in the Channell.

The total force of LW in summer 1940 was actualy larger than that, as a good deal of warplanes were located in Norway (Luftflotte 5) and Germany (squadrons in recuperation).

The period of 2 weeks during Battle of Britain in which LW directly attacked the RAF pretty much showed that the British were losing the battle rapidly, and if it werent't for Goring's genius move to stop bombing the airfields and targeting London instead, the battle may have taken a dramatic turn.
And this was over British soil, a little bit further than the battle over the Channel, were the German fighters could remain more time in the air.

The evacuation of Crete in spring 1941 showed what massed air attacks could do against warships... [and those attacks, again, didn't come close to the total force available by LW in summer 1940]

Regards,
Alex
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by Francis Marliere »

Alecsandros,

are you really sure of the 1.000 dive-bombers ? It seems to me a bit 'high'. Please have a look at what I quickly found on Internet :

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/ba ... ritain.htm
At the start of the war, Germany had 4,000 aircraft compared to Britain's front-line strength of 1,660. By the time of the fall of France, the Luftwaffe (the German air force) had 3,000 planes based in north-west Europe alone including 1,400 bombers, 300 dive bombers, 800 single engine fighter planes and 240 twin engine fighter bombers. At the start of the battle, the Luftwaffe had 2,500 planes that were serviceable and in any normal day, the Luftwaffe could put up over 1,600 planes.

http://sturmvogel.orbat.com/Aug40.html#13Aug
I counted 271 Ju87 B (216 op), 76 Ju87R (58 op) and 477 Ju88A (approx 70% op.) plus 76 in Norway.

http://www.ww2aircraft.net/forum/aviati ... 29674.html
Dive bombers aircraft
6 July....................LW - 280
20 July..................LW - 248
10 August..............LW - 261
7 September..........LW - 180
28 September........LW - 343

BTW I agree that German Ju87 and 88 could inflict heavy looses on RN warships by day, when weather is good enough. However I think that the Home Fleet would attack a German invasion fleet, especially by night, and inflict crippling looses.

Best,

Francis
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by RF »

lwd wrote:
RF wrote:Britain in mid June 1940 was in a far weaker position than you presume.
I don't think so. The problem is you aren't looking at the corresponding weaknesses of the Germans.
The weaknesses of the Germans were largely of their own creation, from lack of proper forward planning beyond that for the invasion of France.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by RF »

lwd wrote: At that time, particulary after the fall of France most people in France and the US assumed Britain would go under.
Really? Lets see looking at:
http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201940.htm
For 5 May we have:
Which side do you think will win the war?
Allies.............................. 55%
Germany........................... 17
No opinion......................... 28
by June there's a bit more pesimism:
Interviewing Date 6/27-7/2/40 Survey #199-K Question #12
Which side do you think will win the war?
Allies.............................. 32%
Axis............................... 35
No opinion.........................33
[/quote]

How big was the sample? And how come that reliance should be placed on don't know? Were these questions asked before the fall of France? Just how representative was this sample?
Joseph Kennedy, the US ambassador in London, who should have been in a position to know, didn't rate Britains' chances too highly.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by alecsandros »

Francis Marliere wrote:
http://sturmvogel.orbat.com/Aug40.html#13Aug
I counted 271 Ju87 B (216 op), 76 Ju87R (58 op) and 477 Ju88A (approx 70% op.) plus 76 in Norway.
That makes ~ 900 dive bombers with ~ 750 operational.
Plus, the article does not include Luftflotte 1 and 4...

A possible supplement by Regia Aeronautica forces would make matters even worse.

In Crete, there were maybe 200-250 dive bombers available at best, and still they caused great damage to the Royal Navy.

---
Indeed, a night attack on the sea would be quite unpleasant for the Germans, but summer nights are short, thus leaving only a small window for warships to intervene without the risk of getting caught in the open and bombed and sunk.
Even if such an attempt woudl be done (and almost certainly would be done), the warships would be intercepted while en-route to the Channel...

Much would depend on the way the landings would be organised and the attacks against the Royal Navy coordinated, but this could be done with enough planning and resources allocated. As it was, Sealion was only a fantasy, and had the planning and resources necesasry for a fantasy :)
Last edited by alecsandros on Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by RF »

lwd wrote:
The British Army was desparately short of weapons and ammunition, particulary of tanks and artillery. By September 1940 there were sixteen re-equipped and re-armed divisions available in Kent/Sussex to contest an invasion.
But much of the artillery deficit was made good by the end of JUne and something like 500,000 rifles delivered more than amking up for what was lost in France. In addition significant quantities of ammo were also delivered during this peirod.
The published evidence in Britain was that the artillery deficit was made up by mid to end August 1940. The shortage of small arms was so acute that a substantial quantity of weaponry had to be imported from as far afield as Australia and New Zealand. Even the production of machine guns was problematical for the Army, as the RAF had to have priority for the arming of fighter aircraft.

The quoted production of rifles is a fantasy. If that were true there would have been enough rifles to fully arm the Home Guard instead of them having to parade in some cases with broomsticks.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by RF »

lwd wrote: And what did the Germans have to contest it? Furhtermore what did they have to move troops across the channel?
The destruction of the RAF should have been straight forward because the Germans should have concentrated on the Fighter Command airfields and radar stations.
In the period where they did this historically they lost ground against the RAF.
... As fortheinvasion itself - the required shipping was there if it had been properly prepared and organised.
It was? Where? It took them what 2 months to gather enough barges and I'm not sure I'd consdier that adequate shipping.
Not that too much shipping would have been needed, the invasion forces required to land in a semi-armed England would not be large, especially with total air superiority.
These points are already dealt with under previous posts in this thread.
Which they simply couldn't obtain. The RAF was going to pull back so they could contest the invasion if it looked like the Germans would gain Air supremacy and you can't hold air superioirty without having a fighter ration on the order of 3:1.
That is what the RAF should have done. But Park and Dowding would not have pulled the RAF back.
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by Francis Marliere »

alecsandros wrote:That makes ~ 900 dive bombers with ~ 750 operational.
Plus, the article does not include Luftflotte 1 and 4...
I think that the difference between the oob lays wether Ju88 are listed as bombers or dive-bombers. They were not, as far as I know, true dive-bombers since they could not dive at 70°, but were quite effective against warships, as events in Mediterranean would prove. I would like nevertheless to point out that most of Ju 88 would not target ships since they have also to bomb airfields, radars, artillery positions, troops concentrations, etc. And as I said, dive-bombing is not possible every day in the Channel due to bad weather (low cloud cover).
alecsandros wrote:A possible supplement by Regia Aeronautica forces would make matters even worse.
I don't think that BR.20 bombers and CR.42 fighters would be decisive in the battle. As far as I know, they were not very effective aircrafts.
alecsandros wrote:Indeed, a night attack on the sea would be quite unpleasant for the Germans, but summer nights are short, thus leaving only a small window for warships to intervene without the risk of getting caught in the open and bombed and sunk.
Even if such an attempt woudl be done (and almost certainly would be done), the warships would be intercepted while en-route to the Channel...
Summer nights last at least 6 hours. British warships could (and certainly would) stay outside Ju 87 range during daylight then rush toward the convoy and engage during the night. They may get sunk after but so would be the German invasion fleet. Please note that if the window for an invasion is in summer, then the LW has no time to defeat the RAF. Hence, many of LW dive bombers will be shot down by Hurricanes and Spitfires and lots of barges will be sunk by the RAF. If Germany waits that LW defeats RAF, then the windows is in autumn. That means bad weather for the dive-bombers (have you ever seen the sky in Northern France in autumn ? it's depressing - always grey with low cloud cover ...), and possible rough sea for barges. To be honest, I would hate to have to cross the Channel in a barge, especially in autumn or winter ...

Best,

Francis
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by alecsandros »

Well, it would depend very much on the real way in which the invasion would be prepared.

Many things can be done - like concentrating radar-guided shore batteries near Calais, mining both sides of the Channell each weak, bringing most of the U-boats near the CHannell, bringing Italian aircraft (maybe not the best, but usefull nevertheless), organizing all paratroop regiments and JU-52/FW-200 paratroop transports, bringing what was left of the German navy after battle for Norway in French northern ports, mantaining continous fighter cover over the entire CHannell, etc.

RAF would not need to be destroyed - the Germans would need to protect their bombers to attack ships and possibly support the invasion with close-to-shore strikes.

Again, much would depend on the actual course of events, but it was pretty much doable, considering the forces available by the combined GErman arms in 1940 as compared to the total British forces on the island able to resist a possible invasion.

British ships outside of Ju87 range would be in Ju88 range...
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by Francis Marliere »

Alecsandros,

I understand - and respect - your point of view, but don't share it. Of course, everything - even the most stupid mistakes (see the battle of France) - can happen during war, but I am inclined to think that a German invasion had very little chances to succeed. German were not just plain stupids ; I can't imagine that they would throw away severall divisions in an operation which is likely to fail.
Generally speaking, a succesfull opposed landing needs local superiority with heavy air and naval support, dedicated amphibious vehicles, adequate training and good doctrine. As far as I know, Germany had none. Germany had neither the capacity to keep it expeditionary forces supplied.

I understand that I may be wrong ; I am not a military just an armchair admiral, and can miss some points. But if the inavsion takes place early, the RAF is still on the show and can sink a lot of barges that are awfully slow and awfully vulnerable to air attacks. Straffing may not sink barges but will surely kill many soldiers inside. Near misses will sink barges or make them capsize, which is not better for the men inside. Since most barges are not motorised but towed, sinking or disabling the towing vessel is enough to cripple the entire tow ... I guess you can imagine the massacre. If the invasion takes place later and if the RAF has been defeated (that's a big if), then tere is no need for the RAF to sink barges because they will likely be sunk by rough sea or by the Royal Navy that can operate by night. The British don't need to send battleships or heavy cruisers since the Royal Navy has many old destroyers and cruisers, but also sloops, minesweepers, patrol crafts, armed trawler that are both expandable and more than capable to sink barges.

Best regards,

Francis
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Re: 3 German battleships in May 1941.

Post by alecsandros »

Dear Francis,
Indeed many things could go wrong, and the island may well have proven un-conquerable in the end.
It's one of the possibilities...

My opinion though is that an invasion could have success, provided enough resources would be concentrated and well coordinated for the assault. The resources were available - especialy the overwhelming superiority in warplanes - but the focus was probably never on Britian, but on the Russians...

An often overlooked element is Geermany's production capacity of transport aircraft. This was never given priority over the fighers and bombers that formed the backbone of Luftwaffe. However, for such an attempt to conquer the isles, I guess they would need as many transport planes and gliders as possible. The more - the better. As it was, only about 450-500 Ju52s were operational in Jun-Jul 1940, and average monthly production for all facilities was ~ 40 units. The FW200 Condors could also be used as troop transports: about 90 were ready in mid-1940. This gives a total of ~ 550 or so, each carrying 8-20 men, depending on the type of load the paratroopers had (supplies, ammo, etc).
This isn't enough - at least twice as many would be needed to transport a fully prepared division.

Lesser objectives could still be accomplished even by a 4000-7000 man-strong drop...

[by comparison, the Crete drop in spring 1941 was done with ~ 500 transport planes, bringing 5000 paratroopers on land in one sortie]

Cheers,
Alex
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