Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

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paul.mercer
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by paul.mercer » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:27 pm

Gentlemen,
A most interesting post, I think that had Germany kept her ships the RN would have still scrapped some of her older ones but because the threat was still there they would have designed and built a lot more modern ships and still stayed well ahead of Germany. I did read somewhere that Germany could never keep up with Gt Britain in the building of capital ships, perhaps that would have been proved if it had been neccessary.

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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by boredatwork » Sat Feb 04, 2012 6:29 am

alecsandros wrote:So I don't know how Great Britain would be able to construct sufficient ships to mantain a "massive superiority" over a proposed German large fleet... Maybe finish the 5 x Admiral Class BCs, while the Germans would finish their own 4 x Ersatz Yorks.
...

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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by Pandora » Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:15 pm

it would be more credible scenario for example if Germany were allowed to retain a navy with a strenght like the French or Italian under the Washington Treaty. scrap the older ships and retain the newest up to 175,000 tons. the US and UK keep the lead with 525,000 tons and Japan 315,000 tons.
for the Germans this means that the Panzerschiffe and Scharnhorsts are never built, but instead we see 3 or 4 new 35,000-ton battleships (Bismarcks) in the 1930s.

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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by Paul L » Sun Feb 05, 2012 4:35 am

Any scenario where German gets to keep a large portion of its fleet implies a stalemate conclusion to WW-I , leading to a mutual cease fire. In that context Germany is not going to allow any negotiation leading to 1/3 of the RN fleet. They would at least aim to negotiate a HF about 1/2 the RN grand fleet. It also implies no ToV dictate, again more toward a negotiated end. Without ToV, Germany would not be gutted economically which in turn would take the wind out of most right wing politics including the Nazi through the 1920s and 30s.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by RF » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:35 pm

Paul L wrote: Without ToV, Germany would not be gutted economically which in turn would take the wind out of most right wing politics including the Nazi through the 1920s and 30s.
Not necessarily so as one of the drivers of radical right wing politics was a fear of communism and radical socialism; another factor was the impact of the Depression in the early 1930's particulary the unemployment which had no source connection to the WW1 peace treaties.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by boredatwork » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:45 pm

RF wrote:particulary the unemployment which had no source connection to the WW1 peace treaties.
The limits on army size and arms production didn't affect unemployment?

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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by RF » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:53 pm

Yes it would, but a civilian government would not want to engage all six million of the unemployed into the armed forces because of their budgets and for fear of foreign reaction.

Not even the nazies managed to do that - they used large scale construction projects and import substitution efforts under Goerings' Five Year Plan to reduce unemployment. Even so, Germany still had one million unemployed in September 1938 during the Munich crisis.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by Paul L » Sun Feb 05, 2012 8:12 pm

Germany economic problems were made much worse by the loss of the Rhineland, which by some estimates represented 1/4 of their economy. If that doesn't happen the scale of the problem would be reduced by order of maginitude.

The anti Stalist fears were universal through out Europe, and while they kept the Right wing strong in most countries it would not lead to Nazi part with larger vote, much less so infact. Prior to the Great Depression, the nazi party was viewed as 'lunitic fringe', by main stream German politics. They only got a foot hold due to the added severity of the GD on an already weakened German economy that had suffered under a decade of the new democracy....so the people chose another path that promised so much.

In this thread that element would be removed and since Schacht was a pre nazi figure his hand on the economic tiller would ensure German rebounds quickly anyway.The tubulance that lead to the WW-II that we all know and love would not be there.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by boredatwork » Sun Feb 05, 2012 8:24 pm

Paul L wrote:Any scenario where German gets to keep a large portion of its fleet implies a stalemate conclusion to WW-I , leading to a mutual cease fire. In that context Germany is not going to allow any negotiation leading to 1/3 of the RN fleet. They would at least aim to negotiate a HF about 1/2 the RN grand fleet.
That might depend on who was doing the negotiation. Assuming the Kaiser is forced to abdicate who is going to politically champion the cause of the HSF at the bargaining table? It achieved very little during the war - it didn't deter Britain from joining the conflict, much less defeat Britain. It didn't defeat the blockade. It didn't save the overseas colonies from anhilation. While the army fought and bled on the western front the fleet, built at enormous expense, sat at anchor. Throughout the last year the fleet became a breeding ground for mutiny and revolutionary elements.

I would think it more likely given the influence of the Army in politics that while it might use the threat of keeping a larger HSF as a bargaining chip, they would be more inclined to accept parity with France in exchange for other concessions similar to those the Japanese extracted regarding fortifications that would materially improve it's position on land on the continent.

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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by ede144 » Sun Feb 05, 2012 9:21 pm

If there is no treaty of Versatile thab GErmany must nor pay reparation and will be able to keep a lot if people in jobs. Germany payed dor Ww1 more than 80 years back
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by Paul L » Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:49 am

It was the army's war in the east that lead to the creation of Soviet empire , which in turn caused the bulk of the unrest in the navy and other civil areas. Most of the mutiny surrounds the overreactions to percieved communist power rise in the new government and the fear they would sieze power.It was the percieved lack of reaction on the part of the army to support the new government that spurned the naval brigades to forum. The Rise of communism through out Europe was a source of real unrest in most countries through the 1920s and 1930s, pushing a more radical right agenda.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by delcyros » Mon Feb 06, 2012 3:54 pm

Considering that the Weimarian Republic went into some deep modernization programs with the aviable and allowed by Versalles Pre-Dreadnought force in 1922 to 1927 period, it´s not fully inconvincing that some of the HSF ships may have been modernized.

Most likely, however, WNT would have reduced the HSF.

Out of the aviable ships the following ships Germany will be happy to offer been scrapped:

all PDN´s
four NASSAU class DN´s
BC VON DER TANN
five KAISER class DN´s
BC MOLTKE (alternatively sold to Turkey or Greece)

not sure about SEYDLITZ and the KÖNIG´s. Possibly SEYDLITZ can be kept as an artillery training vessel, at least. The KÖNIG´s would require extensive, and costly rebuildts, so they possibly all get scrapped, too.

The two DERFFLINGER class BC´s can be kept initially, as well as the two BAYERN class BB´s and modernized.

There would be two more BAYERN class BB´s commissioned in 1919 (SACHSEN and WÜRTTEMBERG almost completed in 1918), which could be kept and
three more MACKENSEN are worked far enough in 1920 to actually await commissioning with one more MACKENSEN and two more ERSATZ YORK in the process of fitting out.

What we have are:
[1] 1913-SEYDLITZ, 25000ts stand. 27 kts (rated speed, not forced)
[2] 1914-DERFFLINGER, 26000ts stand., 27kts
[3] 1917-HINDENBURG, 26500ts stand., 27kts
[4] 1916-BAYERN, 27000ts stand., 22kts
[5] 1917-BADEN, 27200ts stand. 22kts
[6] 1919-SACHSEN, 27500ts stand., 23kts
[7] 1919-WÜRTTEMBERG, 27200 ts stand., 23kts
[8] 1920-GRAF SPEE, 28800ts stand., 28kts
[9] 1920-MACKENSEN, 28800ts stand., 28kts
[10] 1921-PRINZ EITEL FRIEDRICH, 28800ts, 28kts
-----
=272800ts stand. (with SEYDLITZ removed from active service, the total tonnage would be approx. quarter a mio.)

Possible ratio would be 5 (Commonwealth): 5 (US): 3,5 (Japan): 2,5 (Germany, Italy, France each)
If a ratio like 5:5:3:2 would be signed, then Germany beeing a continental power like France and Italy would have to be limited to 200,000ts stand., in whiches case, both DERFFLINGER and HINDENBURG would have been scrapped in addition to SEYDLITZ been transformed into a training vessel.
All about to be commissioned ships have to be scrapped.

Germany would not buildt any Panzerschiffe.
The costs to upkeep this force would put a severe burden on the economical developement of the country
The political environment absent of Versailles would make it more difficult for the Nazis to rise in power
Modernization of the vessel would be very difficult as their protective schemes are dependent on the protective effect of coal.

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RF
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by RF » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:25 pm

Paul L wrote:Germany economic problems were made much worse by the loss of the Rhineland, which by some estimates represented 1/4 of their economy. .
Loss of the Rhineland? The Rhineland was occupied by France/Belguim in 1923 for a brief period but it remained German territory. The diversion of outputs alluded to here had no lasting effects into the 1930's.
The anti Stalist fears were universal through out Europe
True
....., and while they kept the Right wing strong in most countries it would not lead to Nazi part with larger vote, much less so infact. Prior to the Great Depression, the nazi party was viewed as 'lunitic fringe', by main stream German politics.
A lunatic fringe maybe, but still with a sizeable vote that yielded never lower than a dozen MP's. They were not wiped out, the rump formed the nucleous of a much bigger party later on. From 1925 onwards the membership of the NSDAP grew every year until the end of WW2.
They only got a foot hold due to the added severity of the GD on an already weakened German economy that had suffered under a decade of the new democracy....so the people chose another path that promised so much.
This is conjecture. In the late 1920's the NSDAP was steadily growing under its more disciplined and centralised leadership - before the Wall Street Crash..
... In this thread that element would be removed and since Schacht was a pre nazi figure his hand on the economic tiller would ensure German rebounds quickly anyway.The tubulance that lead to the WW-II that we all know and love would not be there.

That is again conjecture. In the context of European history in the 1930's I think it is an unlikely scenario.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by RF » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:31 pm

ede144 wrote:If there is no treaty of Versatile thab GErmany must nor pay reparation and will be able to keep a lot if people in jobs. Germany payed dor Ww1 more than 80 years back
Regards
Ede
After 1924 the Treaty of Versailles was not properly enforced, largely initially through the diplomacy of Stresemann, particulary through the Locarno Pact. After 1931 it was hardly applied. It had no real impact on jobs or GDP in Germany at all post Stresemann.
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Re: Germany keeps all it's fleet after WW1

Post by RF » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:37 pm

Paul L wrote:It was the army's war in the east that lead to the creation of Soviet empire , which in turn caused the bulk of the unrest in the navy and other civil areas. Most of the mutiny surrounds the overreactions to percieved communist power rise in the new government
No. The naval mutiny in 1918 and the civilian riots were due to food and domestic fuel shortages and a desire to see an end to WW1 and the Hohenzollern monarchy.
....,and the fear they would sieze power.It was the percieved lack of reaction on the part of the army to support the new government that spurned the naval brigades to forum. The Rise of communism through out Europe was a source of real unrest in most countries through the 1920s and 1930s, pushing a more radical right agenda.
This was after WW1. The Ebert presidency was supported by the Army and Navy, against both the radical right as well as the radical left.
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