Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Historical what if discussions, hypothetical operations, battleship vs. battleship engagements, design your own warship, etc.
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IronDuke
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Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

Okay so the basis of this is that Prince of Wales and Repulse are not sunk by Torpedo bombers off Malaya and that the Fleet Carrier HMS Indomitable, did not accidentally ground and joins Force Z.

Lets say Churchill does not send so many Aircraft and Tanks to Russia on Artic Convoys, but instead sends more, earlier, to Malaya. With these reinforcements the British, Australian and Indian troops hold the Japanese in on the Malayan mainland in Jahore. So the Singapore Naval base is still useable, even though under attacks from the air.

By the end of 1941 the RN and RAN can concentrate the following ships in the Singapore-Java Sea area:

HMS Prince of Wales
HMS Repulse
HMS Indomitable (Fleet Carrier) Armoured flight deck, up to about 50 aircraft
including in late 1941 1 sq Fulmar Fighters and 1 sq Sea Hurricane Fighters, rest torpedo bombers
HMS Hermes (Light Carrier) Up to 18 Aircraft, mostly Torpedo bombers.
HMS Exeter (Heavy Cruiser)
HMS Mauritius (Light Cruiser)
HMAS Perth (Light Cruiser)
HMAS Hobart (Light Cruiser)
HMS Durban, Diana and Dragon (old Light Cruisers)
HMS Jupiter, HMS Electra, HMS Encounter, HMS Express, HMS Tenedos, HMS Scout,
HMS Thanet, HMAS Vampire (Destroyers)
Perhaps one Revenge class old Battleship
Lets assume that intermitent land based air cover is availble from up to 15 Hurricanes and/or Buffalos.
The Dutch have two Light Cruisers (De Ruyter and Java) and two Destroyers (Kortenaer and Witt de With)
The USN has
USS Houston (Heavy Cruiser)
USS Alden, Paul Jones, John D. Edwards, John D. Ford Destroyers of Desron 58 (other avialable units)?

The Japanese Have:
Hagaru and Nachi Ashigara Myoko (Heavy Cruisers)
Naka and Jintsu (Light Cruisers)
Yudachi, Samidare, Murasame, Harusame, Minegumo, Asagumo, Yukikaze, Tokitsukaze, Amatsukaze, Hatsukaze, Yamakaze, Kawakaze, Sazanami, and Ushio Inazuma + another (Destroyers)
Light Carrier Ryujo (up to about 35 aircraft)
It has been suggested to me that they might also have the Battleships Kongo and Haruna

The Japanese have the advantage of being a single force.

What happens?
Ted
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by Bgile »

It's far too complex for me to have any real guess. That sort of thing I'd wargame, but the outcome could vary a lot depending on the environment among other things. You could play it five times and have five different outcomes with different ships lost or damaged.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

Yes I agree very complex, as real sea battles almost always were, but that's what makes it interesting...
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

An Australian Naval researcher friend of mine has pointed out to me that the Australian 'County Class' Heavy Cruisers HMAS Australia and HMAS Canberra were also earmarked to Force Z.
Ted
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by alecsandros »

Hello Ted,

A few supliments to make the battle more historicaly accurate:
- the USN should have around 2 submarines in the area (P and S class)
- the IJN should field also the heavy cruisers Mikuma and Chokai (Takao and Mogami class, 33kts, 10x203mm)
- the airfields already under Japanese control could field at least 300 warplanes, out of which at least 100 A6M2 Zero fighters and 100 modern torpedo bombers. However, for fairness sake, I would asume they were engaged in bombardments over Singapore at the time, and so the British land-based fighters would be scrambbled to meet them.

I think the amount of dispersion amongst the Allied fleet is crucial for the outcome of the battle. If the units enter combat as they did in the historical engagements, I would expect the IJN fleet to win, simply bacause of the superior concentration of ships.

If, on the other hand, the Allied ships would be concetrated, it would be a much more interesting battle. The Allies would have:
2BBs (PoW, Valiant), 1BC, 2CV (68 warplanes), 2CAs, 11CLs and 11DDs. Speed: 24kts, course - Est (max speed of Valiant), as soon as the enemy is spoted.
The IJN would have:
2BBs, 1CV (35 warplanes), 6CAs, 2Cls, 15DDs. Speed: 28kts, course - West as soon as the enemy is reported.
Asuming both forces spot each other at the same time, using recon planes, with a distance of at about 300km between them. Time of day: 12:00 o'clock.

Phase 1
a) IJN air strike
I would expect the battle to pe opened by the 2 carrier fleets, with the British having the obvious advantage. However, it wouldn't be a walk in the park, because the Zero's outclassed both the Hurricanes and the Fulmars. However, it would be 2 squadrons of British fighters against 1 sqd of Japanese fighters, so my guess is that the IJN would be forced to a defensive position. IF the Ryujo manages to launch the Nakajima Torpedo bombers (about 12) and the Aichi Val dive bobmers (again, about 12), they would have to fly without air cover to the Allied fleet.
Remembering the attack of the Hyryu's Nakajimas and Vals at Mydway against Yorktown (which had a task force with superior AA then the ABDACOM would have here) I would expect at leat 5-6 torpedo planes and 5-6 dive bombers to reach launch position against the Indomitable or Hermes. Most likely, it would be the bigger carrier (the difference in size between them is to obvious to miss). I guess they would score about 2 torpedos and 1 bomb against it, leaving it with a max speed of 15 kts, and forcing the fleet to move slower. And, of course, the deck would be so listed that no planes could be launched or recovered. 3 DDs would be left in charge of her protection, and the CV would head back to Singapore.

b) ABDACOM air strike

However, the British torpedo bombers would be already on their way (42 Swordfish, fighter escort).
Taking into account the usual Japanese fleet disposition (12-16km in length, DDs formed a defensive circle, inside which they were cruisers, protecting the BBs and CVs) and the extremely low speed of the Swordfishes (220km/h) I would think about a similar fate to taht of the American TBD's at Midway: at least half would be lost to AA fire.
[Note: history-wise, the Swordfish did not suffer such terrible losses, despite its low speed. However, this was due to its employment against poorly AA protected targets. Neither the Kriegsmarine nor the Regia Maria had the powerfull AA suite so usual for the Pacific theatre, nor were their crews so well trained in fighting all types of aerial attacks as the Japanese ones were]

Anyway, due to their numbers, probably 15-20 Swordfishes would arive at launch position against the Ryujo (1km away). Probably 1-2 torpedoes would hit, and the carrier would be knocked out of action.

This would leave us with 1 British CV (Hermes) to recuperate about 20 fighters and 15 Swordfish. The capacity would not be enough, so most of the fighters would have to fly to the nearest British air-base (it would be logical, because the IJN lost her ability to launch torpedo-bombers, and the allies would mantain a full squadron of Swordfish for later attacks). I guess they would have the range for that.
The IJN's planes would strike at about 80 minutes after first contact, and the British at about 100 minutes, due to their lower speed. The attacks would last 15-20 minutes. The entire IJN air corps would be destroyed; about 15 Swordfish and 3 Hurricanes would still be available from Hermes. However, due to the huge losses recorded, the Hermes would keep her air-wing at bay, not risking another frontal assault, but instead waiting for the surface battle to develop, and perhaps then, delvier another blow.

Phase 2: first surface battle
The 2 fleets would be on a collision course at a combined speed of 52kts (94km/h). The forward destroyer screens would be in gun range (20km) after about 3 hours from the initial contact. So, at about the time the last Swordfishes land aboard the Hermes (some 8 km behind the forward DD screen) the first gun salvos would be fired, at about 15:00.

Immediately after that, the battleships and cruisers would enter range and open fire at extreme range (about 24km cruisers, 26km battleships). At this moment, the 2 forces would still be in a collision course, so only the fw turrets would be able to fire.

Judging from WW2 historical experiences, there would be no straddles, let alone hits, for the first 10-15 minutes of the battle.

The ABDACOM will undoubtedly try to keep the IJN at arm's length, and use her superior heavy broadside, while the Japanese would try to get to torpedo-launching range (their type91 torpedoes had a range of over 40km. However, most launches occured at 8-15km during WW2. On the Allied side, the torpedoes were much slower and had a max range of ~ 10km, with an optimal launching range of ~ 3km).
The most plausible scenario, IMO would be the following:
- the ABDACOM fleet would form a wall in front of PoW, Valiant and Repulse. All 3 heavy ships would manouvre and open fire from all main guns: 10x356mm L45 + 14x381mm L42. They would be supported by 16x203mm guns (Houston, Exeter).
- The Japanese commander, aware of the situation, would order the CAs and CLs to concentrate their fire on a specific portion of the Allied wall, so that the DDs could launch a torpedo attack at that location. In the mean time, Haruna and Kongo would respond to the enemy BBs with 16x356mm L45 guns.
Japanese heavy cruisers fielded would approach at 15-18 km from the DD/CL wall, and open fire. 60x203mm guns would rain death upon the fleet, which would suffer several direct hits (maybe 2CLs and 2DDs would be damaged, with 1 DD dead on the water). The qualitative difference between the cruisers is essential: the ABDA fleet fielded several old cruisers, armed with 6-8 152mm guns, that were no match for the 203mm guns from the Japanese heavy cruisers.

In the mean time, 9 Japanese DDs would storm towards the gap, in crescent formation, as to maximize the effects of the torpedoes. The IJN cruisers would also launch torpedoes at 15-18km, in order to break the Allied formation even more.
- Realising the danger, the ABDACOM admiral switches heavy fire to the IJN DDs, which, at 15km, are targeted by everything the fleet has. 2 are hit, and only 7 manage to get at 10km. They manouvre to launch, but another one is hit by a shell from Valiant, and remains dead on the water.
- The remaining 6DDs and 6CAs launch over 80 torpedoes in 5 minutes. The British float planes spot them and signal the fleet, which increases speed and changes course. The fire barrage is much less accurate, and the DDs return to the Japanese positions.
- The IJN 6CAs continue to pound the ABDACOM fleet, scoring hits on 3 other ships, one of which explodes violently (a DD).
- The torpedoes run for 8-10 minutes, and start wrecking havoc over the ABDACOM ships: 2 CLs and 2 DDs are sunk, Valiant is hit by 2 torpedoes, loses power and begins to list heavily, while 1 rogue torpedoe hits Hermes.

40 minutes into the battle, the situation is severe:
- 4 DDs sunk or sinking, 4 CLs heavily damaged or sunk, Valiant with 15 degrees list to port, max speed 12kts, Hermes damaged, unaible to launch aircraft for several hours.
The IJN had lost: Ryujo, heavily damaged by air attack, 2DDs sunk, 1 damaged, maybe 1CA damaged by CL fire.

Total forces available after Phase 2: ABDA: 1BB, 1BC, 7CA/CL, 8DDs, 1CV being repaired.
IJN: 2BB, 7CA/CL, 12DD.

Phase 3: US Subs open fire
In front of the ABDA fleet, positioned at the NOrth and South of it, are 2 US Subs - USS Tarpon (4+2 torpedo tubes, max speed underwater 8kts) and USS S-37 (4 torpedo tubes, max uw speed 11kts). They have observed the attack of the Japanese DDs, and decided to exploit the gap in the IJN defenses. So, they slowly closed the distance, ariving at different launch positions: Tarpon to the North, targeting BB Kongo, S-37 to the south, targeting CA Myoko. Undetected, the subs launched 4 torpedoes each from 3km away. Kongo would evade them, but one would hit Haruna below the armored belt, causign siginificant flooding and a 10 degrees list to starboard. Myoko would receive a hit in the stern, causing teh speed to drop at 14kts. Before teh DDs would arive, Tarpon woudl launch teh 2 aft torpedoes against Haruna, scoring another hit, which would cripple the BB. Barely doing 12 kts, and with a 15 degrees list, Haruna would leave teh battle, and so would Myoko.
Phase 4: ABDACOM closes the distance
With the 2 forces balanced again, the British command would start closing in, so that the big guns would score some hits. Repulse would target Kongo, while PoW would target the 4 Japanese CAs.
- In the mean time, all torpedo-carying ships would attack, benefitting from the fact that most Japanese DDs are combing the seas for US subs.
- PoW would hit Chokai with one shell, and it woudl be in turn hit by 10-12 203mm shells, causing several fires, and knocking out the radars, but dealing no other significant damage.
- Repulse and Kongo would score several hits on each other, with Kongo receiving the shorter part of the stick (the 890kg shells fired from Repulse were much more powerfull than the 630kg of the Kongo). However, both ships would be damaged. Repulse woudl have 1 turret out of action, Kongo - max speed 20kts due to a deck penetration and subsequent machinery damage.
- S-37 would be sunk by IJN DDs. Tarpon would remain unscathed and start to reload its tubes.
- IJN fleet would start to rally around Kongo and the 2 CLs in front of the ABDA all-out assault.
- The Allied cruisers woudl launch torpedoes at 4-6km away, under fire from DDs, CAs and CLs.
- The Allied DDs would close to 3km and launch, also under fire (though less accurate).
- The low speeds of these torpedoes, would make them difficult to hit. The IJN ships would manouvre wildly, and lose their fire solutions, receiving several gun hits. The Kongo, with its speed reduced, would get 2 torpedoes and explode.
- PoW would score crippling hits against the disarrayed cruisers: Chokai would be in flames.
Phase 5: IJN strikes back

With the Allied ships so close together, and with the torpedo tubes emptied, the IJN DDs, CLs and CAs start launching torpedoes from all directions, in a disorganized attack. The Type 93 torpedoes, with their 80km/h speeds, would get to the Allied ships in 4-6 minutes. Over 120 torpedoes are launched, causing the ABDA ships to go into disarray. While the sun sets, the torpedoes are more difficult to spot. 3 DDs, 2 CLs and Repulse are hit and badly damaged.
- IJNs 3 remining CAs and 2 CLs form together and coordinate their fire against the damaged ships. In 10 minutes they are all burning.
- Houston and PoW score several hits on a IJN CL, which start taking water. Exeter fires against Nachi, but is outguned, and receives 4 AP shells which cut of the power and leave it in darkness.
- The IJN DDs, 9 of which are still in action, hunt down the remaining 5 Allied DDs. 2 are badly damaged and retreat, while 1 Japanese DD is also damaged. Exeter is targeted by the 8 IJN DDs, and start to burn.

End of Phase 5: 17:30
Forces: Allied: PoW, 1CA, 3DDs, 3CLs, Hermes almost repaired, Tarpon awaiting reload.
IJN: 3CAs, 1CL, 8DDs.

The Japanese would retreat in order to save Chokai, Haruna, Myoko and Ryujo. The ABDACOM would retreat for fear of nocturnal torpedo attacks. A final night attack by Swordfishes hits and sinks Myoko.

And this would be it - no clear winner.

Cheers,
Alex
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by Bgile »

Good ideas about what might happen. I have a few thoughts:

Submarines have seldom been of any use in a surface battle because they are too slow. Because of that, they can't accompany a fleet. The chances of two of them being a factor are IMO almost nil; they would probably be many miles from the battle.

The point of the above is the IJN destoyers wouldn't be distracted. I think you've made two submarines much more important to the outcome of this battle than would have occurred. I don't think submarines were ever a factor in surface battles. They were better employed as lone wolves lying in wait somewhere.

I would expect a massive torpedo attack from the Japanese at about 15km range, and the IJN cruisers would be part of it. Closer ranges prevailed in night battles. Also, their torpedoes have more powerful warheads than anyone else's at this point in the war.

The forces at Denmarck Strait opened fire at about 25,000 yds and began hitting soon after that, so not sure why that wouldn't happen here.

The effectiveness of air attack is hard to figure. Hiryu managed to cripple Yorktown, so that would seem to indicate they can be effective against radar directed fighters. The British destroyers in this fight didn't have any significant AA. Swordfish are very slow, so it's hard for me to imagine they would do better than Torpedo 8 at Midway.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by lwd »

One of the problems here is the Japanese type 93 torpedo. On one hand the allies have no idea of what it's capable of. However the Japanese seemed predisposed to make use of it's extreme range which lead to low P(H). Apparently a lot of the ones they launched during the historical battle also detonated well before they reached the allied ships. On the other even one hit from one of these will likely take the hit ship out of the battle at least for a while. Even if everything else were predictable (which it's surely not) this throws a considerable random factor into any analysis. I'm also not sure how cohesive the allied forces were or could be at this point in time.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by Karl Heidenreich »

Serious stuff here. Can´t tell what could be a result here. I do suspect that if the Japanese knew that the british had the available forces then they will reinforce their order of battle to have the edge.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

Some very interesting ideas here. I tend to agree, that until Nuc subs arrived, with a high underwater speed and the ability to stay submerged, submarines often proved disapointing in fleet engagements.

On the other had, as I said in an earlier post, the two RAN 'Counties' HMAS Canberra and HMAS Australia would problably have been available to add 16 x 8 inch to the allied side.

The Japanese 'Long Lance' torpedos are sure to be a factor, as, probably, would the Allies Radar. HMS Indomitable, like all newer RN Fleet carriers, had an armoured flight deck, and when operating with the British Pacific Fleet these ships proved capable of sustaining even Kamikazi hits and still be able to operate aircraft.

The Japanese would probably try to reinforce their ships, but bare in mind in that on 19th Feburary a major part of their Fleet was helping the invasion of New Guniea and raiding Darwin in the Northern Territory of Australia.

Also by mid March, when the Japanese did turn there attention to the Indian Ocean, the British had another Fleet carrier available (HMS Formidable) plus HMS Warspite and four old Revenge class Battaleships, Two Heavy and Three Light Cruisers and about 15 Destroyers (including two RAN and one Dutch ship).
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by lwd »

IronDuke wrote:... as, probably, would the Allies Radar. ....
How many allied ships would have radar at this point? Certainly the us didn't do very well in many of the early engagements where radar should have been a factor.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

All of the RN Battleships and Carriers, most of the Cruisers, all of the newer Destroyers, would have had Radar by late 1941.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by alecsandros »

Hello guys,

My opinion is that the US subs shouldn't be left out of the picture. Historicaly, they scored several good hits from Dec 1941 to Fev 1942 in the Java Sea. The US Luzon base had several subs available (19 IIRC). So, it's not at all unlikely that at least 2 of them would be patrolling directly ahead of the IJN fleet. Given the manouvering of the IJN fleet firing agsint the ABDA, it would only be a matter of time before the subs would arive in launch position.

I asumed Indomitable would be hit by 2 torpedoes. Remember Illustrious sank after receiving one.

Indeed, I have forgotten about Canberra and Australia. Following the scenario, they would probably return fire to the 6 IJN CAs. This wouldn't change the battle to much, as they would be severely outgunned.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

That would give the Allies Two Battle ships and a Battle Cruiser with 14 15 inch and 10 14 inch guns, four Heavy Cruisers with 32 8 inch guns supported by eight Light Cruisers with approaching 50 6 inch , plus Destroyers thats a fair bit of Firepower...
Ted
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by alecsandros »

And the IJN would have:
16 x 356mm L45

60 x 203mm L50 + 36 x 120-127mm guns (the heavy cruisers)

14x140mm guns from the 2 CLs

about 100 x 127mm L50 guns from destroyers

The Japanese CAs and DDs were significantly more powerfull than their counterparts, both in terms of displacement (Myoko was close to 14.000 tons and Chokai nearly 16.000 tons while Canberra/Australia/Houston were below 10.000 tons, and Exeter ~ 8.000tons), armor protection and weapon systems (Myoko class had 18 guns, 10x203mm + 8x127mm + 12 Type 93 torpedoe tubes).

Historically speaking, the technological superiority of the IJN ships would more than compensate the numerical disadvantage.

As for the CA/DD mounted radars at least, remember the historical battles around Java in late 1941-early 1942: complete anihilation of the ABDACOM fleet, even with their radars.
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Re: Hypothetical Battle of the Java Sea...

Post by IronDuke »

I think, as always, it would depend on Commanders, morale and a bit of luck...
Ted
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