Midway: Jap Carriers survive

[jazsa80]

How about this.

Battle goes as historical but by sheer fluke Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu get back to Japan. All four flight decks are trashed and lets say about 20-30% of the aircrews come home to.

First of all, what was the Japanese capacity to repair 4 fleet carriers? I would imagine the damage to equate to that of Zuikaka's after the coral sea. Could they be ready for Eastern Solomons or would it overhwhelm Japan's repair capacity? And would the 30% of the aircrews be enough to help train new crews to a half descent standard?

[lwd]

Well if it looked like there was a chance of getting the 3 damaged CVs back to Japan I suspect Hiryu would not have made her suicide run and tried to shepherded the others back. I suppose you could theorize a weather front covered them for at least part of the journey. In this case I think a lot more than 30% of the aircrews survive. I don't see any way the three (or 4 Hiryu could still have taken damage in the retreat and in any case her fighters are going to take casualties protecting the CVs) could make it in time for the Eastern Solomons. In addition the Japanese will actually have a harder time hiding the fact that they suffered a serious defeat.

Incidently if you are interested in Midway and haven't read it yet I highly recomend Shattered Sword. I believe it's one of the things even Karl and I agree on.

[Karl Heidenreich]

This is one of the myths that Parshall and Tully destroy early in "Shattered Sword" . What could have happened if the IJN CVs made it home, or going farther, winning the battle? The war could have been a little bit longer (which doesn´t add up because the Bomb would have been ready at time for dropping in August 1945) but that´s all.

Let´s see what really happened. The IJN lost the Guadalcanal Campaign to a weaker USN in 1942-43. The Japanese Midway CVs would not be of any help because they were likely to be heavily damaged and the Japanese were not capable to repair them at time (if we see the Coral Sea action, even being capable of repairing them they never showed rush to do it as the USN did with Yorktown having it ready in 48 hours to send her fight at Midway). So, Guadalcanal would have ended the same way it did, historically. And by 1943, when the Japanese had Kido Butai ready again, then what? By 1943 the US would have already deploying it´s new fleet, with new flatops, new and technological better aircraft, new BBs, new cruisers, and much better trained pilots and crews, etc. etc. etc.

In real life the Japanese did deploy a new CV fleet, in 1944: at the Philipine Sea in June, with no avail. Let´s theorize that the 4 Midway CVs could be there with their comrades and, let´s say, 50% of the experienced (and incredible worn out, battle fatigued and tired) air crews. What would happened? Maybe the USN would not have had the "Marianas Turkey Shoot" and sustained heavier losses, but they would had prevailed against it´s numerical inferior, tactical handcuffed and "let me find a good place to die" enemy. No big difference at the end.

A final thought: in contrast to the European Theater, where there are hypothesis that could likely changed History (at least by 1941-1942... or far as 1944), the Pacific War Theater is a dead end for the Japanese because THEY COULD HAVE NEVER BEEN CAPABLE OF WINNING AGAINST THE US, PERIOD, whatever they had done: third wave on Pearl, taking Midway on their way home from bombing Pearl, changing their military codes, sending Yamato at Savo to sink Washington and South Dakota , but at the end, by June-November 1944 the US would have been already at the offensive and preparing for the campaign against the Marianas, Philipines or Formosa, and by August 1945 the Bomb would have been dropped.

Best regards

[minoru genda]

I agree with most of what Karl said above. Repairing the 4 CVs would take at least 6 months. No chance to be ready for Eastern Solomons and later in the war there is little they can do against the many newest US warships (they might contribute to win some isolated battles though). However it would been interesting to see them at Leyte even if they lose the battle in the end.

[Karl Heidenreich]

Minoru Genda:

However it would been interesting to see them at Leyte even if they lose the battle in the end.

Genda! As a matter of fact I do believe that, even losing at Leyte, the US would have won the war and the Philipines, but with much, much heavier loses. But this is, now, one of my favorites hypothetical scenarios and it´s curious you bring it forward!

What if... the Japanese evade combat at Philipine Sea, take care of their CVs (forget the Midway´s ones, we can use the 1944 ones with their crews, no need of more) and wait for Mac´s megalomania to set a good scenario for them: LEYTE!

Ozawa, in this case, instead of commanding a "diversion" would have at his command a super powerfull CV force with complete aircraft supply and aircrews, approaching Halsey from the North. Kurita and Nishimura´s forces, united, with Yamato and Musashi at the lead didn´t even attempt to go thru San Bernandino, but go South thru Surigao against the better positioned and RDFC equipped but old BBs. What then?

The real GREATEST big gun battle of all time at Surigao whilst Halsey would have a really hard time selecting it´s target: North against Ozawa or South against Kurita-Nishimura forces?

There is no doubt that the IJN BBs would have broken the back of the USN battleline there, sustaining heavy or fatal loses, but they would have come thru. And then we didn´t know what Ozawa could have done against Halsey´s anger... Anyway, the naval forces at the Gulf would have had a hard time... well, considering a much earlier attack date: October 21st-22 instead of 24-25. That because to harm USN and US Army at Leyte the date is 20-22. After that you could have done the miracle of broken thru the old BBs and get at the Gulf just to find "only" supply ships because the "armada" withdrawed since 22-23.

The Ozawa card is the one interesting here. As I say, the IJN could have gone to the bottom with a "very fitting place to die" by doing this deployement. Sooner or later the USN would have prevailed in a most hostile enviroment and with heavier loses (a whole battleline shattered?) but this combat would have been greater than Trafalgar and Jutland put together: a big gun fight at the South at the same time we have a naval airborne combat at the North, with no so certain victor at the end. It´s possibly, even, that Ozawa decided to go thru whatever the costs and Halsey being forced to withdraw to fight another day (a week or two after, when having his other Task Forces put together). Maybe Kurita and Nishimura could have gone thru with enough firepower to link with Oazawa and present a cohesive last stand...

Fascinating!

Best regards

[Karl Heidenreich]

And Shima! I forgot Shima!

IJN could use Shima either at North or South! Shima, determined to die, could charge against the old BBs, so they reveal their positions to the superb stereoscopic range finders of Musashi and Yamato at Surigao and... bye, bye Battleship Row for a second time!

And at the North Halsey would have the need to divert airpower to stop Shima before he makes contact with his Task Forces, so weakening his offensive (or defensive?) power against Ozawa...

[Karl Heidenreich]

Bgile,

What do you think about my Super Leyte Scenario? A cohesive pinzer attack: BBs from the South and CVs from the North, no delusion about a diversion, massive forces. Halsey in the middle... "Bull" Halsey. We know how he reacted historically, we know he is capable of tactical blunders. We know about the weaknesses of both BB formations.

Awesome scenario, isn´t it?

Best regards.

[Bgile]

I think if everything worked out as planned, it could be a major Japanese victory. I don't agree that the Japanese force would slaughter the six old US BBs and all the cruisers and destroyers and PT boats though. I think if they were determined to get through, they could have set back us offensives by a long time due to the potential death of ... what ... 50,000 US soldiers? Assuming it worked perfecty of course which plans never do.

The Japanese could have won Midway, too. And they could have destroyed the transports after the Savo Island debacle. They didn't act decisively when they could have.

[Karl Heidenreich]

Bgile:

They didn't act decisively when they could have.

True. Perhaps their commanders were very aware of the cost of failing, to such a degree that paralized them, unable to be bold. Nimitz never took counsel in his fears, so he act as if he has nothing to lose, and go to win big time... as Nelson did. Two great commanders, over the sea, no one else was better.

But I believe that if precise orders were given to the field commanders of IJN, orders without any ambiguity (contrary to the common Yamamoto´s orders which were far for precise and too ambiguous) that lead them to extreme agressive action then Leyte could have worked out well for IJN.

On the other hand I didn´t say that the Japanese BBs would have slaughter the old BBs and the entire USN formation, I said they could past thru (destroying the battleline which by no means represents the destruction of all the capital vessels with their smaller units) in order to direct themselves to the Gulf.

Best regards.

[RF]

A final thought: in contrast to the European Theater, where there are hypothesis that could likely changed History (at least by 1941-1942... or far as 1944), the Pacific War Theater is a dead end for the Japanese because THEY COULD HAVE NEVER BEEN CAPABLE OF WINNING AGAINST THE US, PERIOD, whatever they had done: third wave on Pearl, taking Midway on their way home from bombing Pearl, changing their military codes, sending Yamato at Savo to sink Washington and South Dakota , but at the end, by June-November 1944 the US would have been already at the offensive and preparing for the campaign against the Marianas, Philipines or Formosa, and by August 1945 the Bomb would have been dropped.

Best regards

I don't disagree with any of Karl's post the above quote is extracted from.

However an observation can be made here, admittedly an academic one. Japan had no chance of winning in WW2 because it was so logistically disadvantaged, behind in technology and had leaders with no idea of strategic vision.
But matters could have been different. Imagine no war in China from 1937. Imagine seizure and securing of Malaysia and the Dutch East Indies without attacking the USA. Imagine much closer collaboration with Nazi Germany, including joint development of rockets and nuclear bombs. And at a more tactical level, equipping all its carriers with armoured decks, prior to attacking the US by destroying the US fleet at Pearl and immediately invading Hawaii.
In those circumstances the overall outcome might have been very different.
All it would take are Axis leaders with brains and intelligence in their heads and not ignorance and predjudice.

[RF]

How about this.

Battle goes as historical but by sheer fluke Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu get back to Japan. All four flight decks are trashed and lets say about 20-30% of the aircrews come home to.

First of all, what was the Japanese capacity to repair 4 fleet carriers? I would imagine the damage to equate to that of Zuikaka's after the coral sea. Could they be ready for Eastern Solomons or would it overhwhelm Japan's repair capacity? And would the 30% of the aircrews be enough to help train new crews to a half descent standard?

You could look at this from another angle - improve the organisation and productive capabilities of Japanese industry and shipyards so that new carriers and planes can be built in greater numbers and more quickly. Japanese industry as a whole in WW2 used out of date production methods and was not properly mobilised for total war. Also the allocation and utilisation of materials (when still in plentiful supply) was wasteful and subject to disputes between the IJA and IJN.

[Bgile]

You can hypothesize lots of things. If all the Allied military leaders were incompetent, clearly we would have lost the war. If we had chosen to build no carriers, we'd have lost the war. If Roosevelt had died six years earlier and the Japanese hadn't attacked the US, maybe the US would have been neutral and still with a depressed economy.

I don't think the result was inevitable, just that the axis had disadvantages that tended to be decisive. Clearly whichever side got the atomic bomb first would be likely to win. That would have been Hitler's "Super Weapon", if he had only realized it.

[RF]

You can hypothesize anything. The events I hypothesize could easily have happened, they are not in the realms of the fantastic or the incredible. You could just as easily argue that the Allied leaders - to start off - were all incompetent. Logically the French Army should have won the war in Europe in September 1939 by invading an undefended western Germany while the Siegfried Line was still a building site and the panzers and Luftwaffe were in Poland.

[lwd]

...The events I hypothesize could easily have happened, they are not in the realms of the fantastic or the incredible. ....

Individually they are not unreasonable but together they start to become problematic. For instance if Japan doesn't attack China in 37 is it at all clear that they become part of the axis? Indeed they can probably come out of it much better if they join the allies. For instance access to the Dutch oil would become almost a given in this case. Siezing Vichy Indochina would also likely be forgiven at worst and possibly be applauded.

As for Karl's Leyte scenario. I don't see Halsey being lured off in this one so it's not clear what the US distrobutions would be.

[RF]

What I was getting at is that Japan already, post acquisition of Manchuria, had considerable leverage over China, a full scale shooting war wasn't necessary. It was to tie down two-thirds of the IJA.

There would, I think, be little in it for Japan to be part of the Allies. And what help could the Japanese give in a war against Hitler?

No, Japan had far greater to gain by joining the Axis. The IJA gained a potential ally against the USSR, posing a two front threat to that country, while the IJN gained a potential ally against the USA. Plus the prospect of owning the whole of the Far East, the only other major world power being Germany, and Hitler was not going to interfere in the Far East.

Dutch oil? The Dutch colonial government and businessmen didn't make it easy for the Japanese, they drove hard bargains, the oil didn't come cheap.