CO2 influence on climate explained

Anything else you want to talk about.
User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:26 am

Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

Garyt
Senior Member
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 pm

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Garyt » Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:11 pm

Interesting. I'll say it makes me look at whether the cause is man made or not in more depth.

I also found a retort for Salby's position here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Murry-S ... Cycle.html

It's a least worth a read if you are going to keep an open mind.

I think it is pretty clear we are seeing a warming trend, again, the question is if it is man made or not. I'd like to know the political or financial motivations of all these experts, and who funded their research. And I mean this for experts on both views, man made and not man made.

I am not saying one side or the other is right - to me the jury is still out without me spending more of my time researching. And sad to say, it is very possible one can view all the evidence and not come to a concrete conclusion.

The other question I have is first assume we are not the cause, which is still a matter in debate, can we by cutting back on emission of Greenhouse gases help slow or stop the warming?

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:07 am

Garyt wrote:
I think it is pretty clear we are seeing a warming trend


We are not:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/09/r ... uary-data/

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/04/06/ ... -4-months/

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2015/04/r ... lobal.html

I'd like to know the political or financial motivations of all these experts, and who funded their research.


In Salby's case he sacrificed his career rather than back down from his findings.

can we by cutting back on emission of Greenhouse gases help slow or stop the warming?


Assuming there is abnormal warming, Salby clearly demonstrates than if we cut man made CO2 to zero or if we doubled man made CO2, it will not make any difference.
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:49 am

The scepticalscience rebuttal is presenting a lot words that don't matter in terms of Salby's key points. For example, if Salby is using a baseline of 380 ppm or 393 ppm hardly matters. It fails to counter Salby's climate sensitivity and equilibrium calculations. Even if Salby is wrong about the main source of CO2 emissions a doubling will only cause an insignificant amount of warming. Salby is backed up by this study:

http://judithcurry.com/2015/04/08/are-h ... more-18337
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

Garyt
Senior Member
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 pm

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Garyt » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:53 am

I would really have to spend a lot of time looking at both sides explanations to come to any conclusion I'm comfortable with. I do say it's a heck of a lot better presented than Inhofe and his snowball :D

With his snowball, and saying in essence that global warming is a farce because there is snow outside shows very much either a lack of intelligence on his side, or a lack of belief in the intelligence of his constituents.

But I'm pretty sure you can get a global warming thesis stating that global warming is influenced by man that shows as much in depth information as Salby's study, again I just don't have the time to get into the research.

I would say that if 97% of scientists believe that global warming is man made, Salby and others like him are on the fringes. For every Copernicus, there are many with ideas that "conventional" science rejects that are indeed just wrong.

Another thing as well, no increase in temperature for the past 20 years means little or nothing. There are indeed other influences that effect global temperature, and a bit of stagnation in the trend upward means little. 20 years is not even a second when looking at a global timescale of the planet warming or cooling. It's like if a ballplayer goes 0-4 in a game assuming he will be hitless for the entire season.

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:30 am

The 97% "consensus" doesn't carry much weight anymore:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/ ... at-is.html

http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/26/the-97-consensus/

Climate scientist Judith Curry has been described as a luke warmest, BTW. She and Roy Spencer are hardly firebrand sceptics.


The satellite data showing there is not a warming trend- contrary to popular belief- is a big deal. Besides showing we are not observing unprecedented warming as claimed, it shows the climate models presented by NASA, NOAA, ,,,the IPCC...ect... and the predictions therefrom, are wrong.
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

User avatar
RF
Senior Member
Posts: 7490
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:15 pm
Location: Wolverhampton, ENGLAND

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby RF » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:15 pm



I so far have not looked at this video, principally as I have not had a spare 40 minutes in which to do so.

However, looking at Murry Salby's background as indicated in Wikipaedia - I make no judgement as to the content - I am wondering if spending such 40 minutes is likely to be productive time.

What is needed to demonstrate ''global warming'' - whether natural or man made - is a clear plain English explanation of the process, which can then be subject to scientific testing.
So far I haven't seen any attempt to do so that is credible. Which leads me to suspect that there isn't one.

We need to leave out any academic who has been the subject of allegations about misconduct or inappropriate use of funding, or any other suggestion of hidden agendas.

Science should be value free. The problem is that it rarely is.
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:48 pm

Salby's presentation has caused a stir. These are the key points discussed:

Atmospheric co2 mostly comes from the oceans and man made co2 is only a very small percentage of the total.
There is an eqaulibrium between "new" co2 and co2 removed by natural sinks such as the oceans.
Essentially all man made co2 is removed by natural sinks because it is so small an amount
Climate is not highly sensitive to co2 amounts, although it does have some correlation .

One of the points put forth by Judith Curry was that the evidence suggests that climate is not nearly as sensitive to co2 as previously believed, in agreement with Salby. Essentially even a doubling of atmospheric co2 will cause no more warming by 2100 than less than ~1*c, which is well within the range of natural variability.
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

Garyt
Senior Member
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 pm

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Garyt » Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:54 pm

What is needed to demonstrate ''global warming'' - whether natural or man made - is a clear plain English explanation of the process, which can then be subject to scientific testing.


Here's a pretty simple test you can do yourself if you want - shows how C02 works to increase temperature.

http://www.rsc.org/Education/Teachers/R ... n/home.htm

C02 Is indeed at it's highest point in probably 20 million years. I don't think that is debatable, it's at over 400ppm from perhaps 280ppm a hundred or so years ago.

There we have that C02 is increasing, and it does work as a "greenhouse gas". The only questions really is
1) How much does it effect the temperature of the planet, and
2) Is the increase man made.

Essentially all man made co2 is removed by natural sinks because it is so small an amount


This is an incorrect assumption. A certain amount of C02 is produced and removed naturally. Man obly produces a small volume, but the issue is that this effects the delicate natural balance. You may have a balanced scale with 1000 grams on each side, but if you keep on putting small amounts of a gram on one side it is a matter of time before the balance is thrown off.

One of the points put forth by Judith Curry was that the evidence suggests that climate is not nearly as sensitive to co2 as previously believed,


That may indeed be true. I would be interested (though not having enough time) to compare the research of Curry vs. the research of those who feel CO2 effects the atmosphere more.

I might add Curry does NOT think that man made CO2 does not have an impact on climate change, she just thinks it's less of an impact than others believe.

n October 2014, Curry wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal [20] where she argued that human-caused warming near the end of the 21st century should be less than the 2-degrees-Celsius “danger” level for all but the IPCC’s most extreme emission scenario, which is far later than the IPCC prediction of a 2-degrees-Celsius warming before 2040.


So, the huge problem with man made C02 will happen in 2040 according to some scientists, where Curry is probably looking mid 22nd century?

Either way it is an issue.

But one thing I do agree, man only impacts the climate by a small amount. There are many things in nature that have a stronger impact, though it (nature) usually moves very slowly.

Just a bit of info on how CO2 in the atmosphere has varied through the Earth's history:

Carbon dioxide concentrations have varied widely over the Earth's 4.7 billion year history. Carbon dioxide is believed to have existed during Earth's first atmosphere which dates back to shortly after Earth's formation. Earth's second atmosphere emerged after many of the lighter gasses like hydrogen escaped to space or were bound up in molecules and is thought to have consisted largely of nitrogen, carbon dioxide and inert gases produced by outgassing from volcanism, supplemented by gases produced during the late heavy bombardment of Earth by huge asteroids. Cyanobacteria converted some of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to oxygen which eventually led to the oxygen catastrophe that ended Earth's second atmosphere and brought about the Earth's third atmosphere (the modern atmosphere) 2.4 billion years before the present. Carbon dioxide concentrations had dropped from 7,000 parts per million during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 parts per million during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years.


Rather Interesting.

The other thing is that without C02's warming blanket, certain scientists believe the global temperature would be around -1 C.

So a greenhouse gas is not always a bad thing. What man and civilization desires and needs are as small of changes to the enviroment as possible, including the temperature. A few degrees either way can have drastic impacts. Now, if we would see something indicating an ice age is in the process of happening, we would want to find ways to add CO2 to the atmosphere :D

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:54 pm

Garyt wrote: it's at over 400ppm from perhaps 280ppm a hundred or so years ago.


That is incorrect data. The observatory in Hawaii still has it as less than 400ppm this year.

This is an incorrect assumption. A certain amount of C02 is produced and removed naturally. Man obly produces a small volume, but the issue is that this effects the delicate natural balance. You may have a balanced scale with 1000 grams on each side, but if you keep on putting small amounts of a gram on one side it is a matter of time before the balance is thrown off.


Did you watch Salby's presentation? If so, you should know what complete nonsense your assumptions are here in that light.

I
might add Curry does NOT think that man made CO2 does not have an impact on climate change, she just thinks it's less of an impact than others believe.


Very little. Well within the range of natural variability. She is not offering up an opinion on this point. it is based on scientific evidence.
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

Garyt
Senior Member
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 pm

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Garyt » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:24 am

That is incorrect data. The observatory in Hawaii still has it as less than 400ppm this year.


It's been over 400 since February. The last annual data is 398.55 for 2014. As 3 out of 4 months for this year have been over 400, I think it would be safe to assume the annual data for 2015 when compiled will be over 400.

So I would say you are wrong, as there is not an annual data for 2015 compiled yet.

If you wish to say the date for the last year on record is under 400, that would be correct. Even trhen though I'd call you guilty of nitpick, as 398.55 is pretty darn close to 400. And that was for last year.

Here are the last full 2 months monthly data:


March- 401.52
February- 400.23

Currently it stands at 403.60

I'm not sure what you are meaning here about less than 400ppm for THIS year?

Really, if you are planning on countering 400 ppm you should at least be more accurate with your assertions.

http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/g ... board.html

Garyt
Senior Member
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 pm

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Garyt » Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:28 am

Did you watch Salby's presentation? If so, you should know what complete nonsense your assumptions are here in that light.


OK, I get it. You find 1, perhaps 2 scientists who have a different theory than other scientists, and thereby cancel out all other scientific work as complete nonsense. This by itself, by ignoring other scientists theories, is by itself a fault in your logical process.

User avatar
Dave Saxton
Supporter
Posts: 2881
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:02 pm
Location: Rocky Mountains USA

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby Dave Saxton » Wed Apr 22, 2015 5:55 am

Scientific facts are not arrived at by consensus. Curry and Salby have the most up to date data sets. Older theories and associated models have been rendered obsolete by the empirical observations since 1998. Remember we are not seeing a increasing temp trend despite increasing co2.

It is doubtful that any climate scientist would advance a delicate balance theory concerning co2. That sounds more like some former politician.

Anyway, the delicate balance approach is irrelevant to the question of climate because it is known that mean temperature does not increase at a linear rate, or in proportion, to the amount of co2 in the atmosphere. The opacity curve for ppm co2 flattens out before 300 ppm. The increase to 400 ppm only shows an marginal increase of a fraction of a degree, and it will show the same type increase when the co2 concentration reaches 690 ppm in about 2092. and so on and so on.....

Salby clearly shows that co2 concentration will continue to increase even if we cut all carbon fuel emissions to zero today. If we do nothing it will also make virtually no difference to the ppm of co2 now or in the future.
Entering a night sea battle is an awesome business.The enveloping darkness, hiding the enemy's.. seems a living thing, malignant and oppressive.Swishing water at the bow and stern mark an inexorable advance toward an unknown destiny.

User avatar
RF
Senior Member
Posts: 7490
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:15 pm
Location: Wolverhampton, ENGLAND

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby RF » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:58 am

Garyt wrote:Here's a pretty simple test you can do yourself if you want - shows how C02 works to increase temperature.

http://www.rsc.org/Education/Teachers/R ... n/home.htm


A very basic and simple test, using a bottle containing 100% carbon dioxide.

However two questions over the stated result does come to mind.

Firstly it doesn't answer my previous questions about temperatures on the planets Mars, Jupiter and Saturn - why are they so cold with their greenhouse gas atmospheres?

Secondly the Earth's atmosphere has only a tiny CO2 content. The example doesn't seem to mention the results with the control bottle, I would assume some temperature increase on account of the fact that the surface of the container does heat up.

As Earth's atmosphere has such a small CO2 content this experiment is not realistic in demonstrating the effects of a doubling or tripling of a tiny content. To start heating the Earth up the CO2 would need to become a substantial content of Earth's atmosphere. Even on Mars where it is 97% daytime temperatures average well below freezing. It is sufficiently cold for the CO2 to freeze at the poles.
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.

User avatar
RF
Senior Member
Posts: 7490
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:15 pm
Location: Wolverhampton, ENGLAND

Re: CO2 influence on climate explained

Postby RF » Wed Apr 22, 2015 9:12 am

Garyt wrote:
C02 Is indeed at it's highest point in probably 20 million years. I don't think that is debatable, it's at over 400ppm from perhaps 280ppm a hundred or so years ago.

There we have that C02 is increasing, and it does work as a "greenhouse gas". The only questions really is
1) How much does it effect the temperature of the planet, and
2) Is the increase man made.



The current observed increase in CO2 content needs to be seen in context. It is still a tiny fraction of 1%.

The maximum CO2 content in Earth's atmosphere is believed to be about 9% if the theory about the ''snowball Earth'' is to be accepted. In that scenario a content of around 7% was needed, with the CO2 provided as ejecta from super-volcanic eruptions, to start raising global temperatures and melt out a global ice age. At that time plate tectonics was far more dynamic and violent than it is today, partly due to the much closer proximity of the Moon.

I believe the current measures are far too small to have any measurable effect.

Is the increase man made? Well the ''climate change'' lobbyists get around having to prove that by building it in as the answer to apparently unexplainable temperature increases in their computer models. In other words, it is an assumption.
''Give me a Ping and one Ping only'' - Sean Connery.


Return to “Off Topic”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests